Led by former Ukip leader Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party pulled off a spectacular political upset in the recent EU elections. And launching candidates to sit in every constituency in a general election, the newcomers seemed destined to keep climbing. But while polls cannot always be relied on, they are showing the popularity of the party has slipped recently.
A poll conducted by YouGov between July 2 and 3 of 1605 British adults asked: “If a general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?”.
The results put the Brexit Party in second place with 23 percent, behind the Conservatives on 24 percent.
This marks a contrast from the same question polled between June 9 and 10 of 1,702 British adults which gave the Brexit Party 26 percent, well in the lead of all other major parties.
Even more damning is a recent opinion poll conducted by BMG Research on behalf of The Independent of 1,532 British adults between July 2 and 5 on general election voting intention.
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That poll put he Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 28 percent and 27 percent respectively with the Liberal Democrats on 18 percent and the Brexit Party on just 14 percent.
But what could be behind this dip?
It’s possible the lustre of the EU election success might be wearing off.
There’s also the likelihood that voters who defected from the Conservatives might have returned with the prospect of hardline Brexiteer Boris Johnson the likely new Prime Minister.
Mr Johnson has promised that, if he were to become Prime Minister, he will take the UK out of the EU on October 31 “do or die”.
But a poll of Conservative members by Orb International for the Daily Telegraph showed that 92 percent of party members would stick with the party if Brexit happens by Halloween.
Conversely, if the deadline is missed, the poll showed 35 percent would defect to the Brexit Party.
A source close to Mr Johnson said: “It’s clear that Boris is the only candidate trusted by the electorate to deliver on Brexit and that is the only way to get voters back into the Conservative fold.”
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Mr Johnson is maintaining a strong lead in all polls.
According to YouGov’s most recent poll of 1,119 Conservative Party members, Mr Johnson holds a 48 point lead over his rival when asked who they’d vote for.
Jeremy Hunt gathered just 26 percent of the vote, well beneath Mr Johnson’s 74 percent.
The same poll asked which candidate members believed would be willing to take the UK out of the EU without a deal.
Nine in ten – 90 percent – of those polled said Mr Johnson would be that candidate.